The United States military is currently engaged in a significant effort to accelerate missile production, a response to years of output that has fallen short of current demands, leaving crucial weapon systems in short supply. An analysis of Pentagon procurement data reveals that at existing production rates, replenishing some of the military's most vital munitions could take many years, and in certain instances, even decades. This situation highlights a substantial disparity between battlefield consumption and the nation's industrial capacity to produce these weapons, a gap that cannot be rapidly bridged.
In response, major defense contractors have entered into new agreements with the Pentagon and have committed to substantially increasing their output across various advanced munitions programs. However, senior military officials have cautioned that this buildup will require considerable time to materialize. Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, informed lawmakers in April that scaling up production would likely take "one to two years," indicating that the necessary increases would "not be soon enough."
The intensified push for increased production comes in the wake of recent combat operations that have significantly depleted U.S. stockpiles of high-end munitions. This depletion has exposed a widening gap between the rate at which the military can employ advanced weaponry and the lengthy period required for their replacement, thereby raising concerns about the nation's long-term defense readiness.
This disparity between weapon usage and replenishment capabilities is reportedly attracting scrutiny within the administration. According to a report by The Atlantic, Vice President J.D. Vance questioned during closed-door discussions whether the Pentagon had fully accounted for the extent to which these stockpiles were diminished during the conflict with Iran. This line of questioning reportedly raised concerns about the availability of key munitions, even as defense officials publicly maintained that U.S. stockpiles remained adequate.
Senator Vance, however, disputed this characterization in an interview on Fox News' "The Will Cain Show" on Wednesday. He rejected the sourcing of the report while simultaneously acknowledging his concerns regarding military readiness. "Of course, I’m concerned about our readiness because that’s my job to be concerned," Vance stated, while also commending defense leaders for "doing an amazing job." He further dismissed the report, advising listeners to "Don’t believe everything you read, especially in papers like The Atlantic."
Pentagon officials have also pushed back against these concerns. Sean Parnell, a spokesperson, previously told Fox News Digital, "America’s military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing." He added, "As Secretary Hegseth has highlighted numerous times, it took less than 10% of American naval power to control the traffic going in and out of the Strait of Hormuz." Parnell asserted that since President Trump took office, the U.S. military has successfully executed numerous operations across combatant commands while maintaining a "deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests." He characterized attempts to alarm the public about the Department's magazine depth as "both ill-informed and dishonorable."
Historical Pentagon procurement data provides context for the existing gap. For instance, the Navy's Tomahawk cruise missile has been procured at an average rate of approximately 66 missiles per year over the last seven years. At this pace, it would take roughly 12 years to achieve the Navy's objective of acquiring an additional 785 missiles. The situation is even more pronounced for the Army's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system. Procurement has averaged about 30 interceptors annually, meaning it would take nearly three decades to reach a new target of 857 additional interceptors at current rates.
Even for more commonly produced systems, such as the Patriot PAC-3 interceptor, historical output has not kept pace with current demand. The U.S. has procured an average of roughly 212 PAC-3 MSE missiles annually. This rate would require approximately two years to meet a new objective of acquiring 405 additional missiles.
Recent combat engagements have already underscored the strain on these resources. Pentagon acting comptroller Jay Hurst indicated to lawmakers that the conflict with Iran has incurred costs of approximately $25 billion to date, with "most of that is munitions."
A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that U.S. forces utilized substantial quantities of several critical munitions during the campaign. This included over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles and more than 1,000 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles. The use of Patriot interceptors was estimated to be between approximately 1,060 and 1,430 missiles, representing more than half of the U.S. prewar inventory.
Despite this heavy expenditure, analysts suggest that the U.S. currently possesses sufficient munitions to sustain ongoing operations. However, they express greater concern about the military's ability to rebuild stockpiles rapidly enough to support a future conflict against a peer adversary. Some initial gains in production are already being realized, with efforts to scale up output seen in other munitions programs, including artillery, which has seen its production increase severalfold since 2022.
Defense firms report that they are actively increasing output and making substantial investments to expand their manufacturing capacity. RTX, the parent company of Raytheon, announced that missile deliveries increased by over 40% year-over-year in the first quarter of the current year, building on production gains from the previous year. The company also stated it invested $2.6 billion last year to enhance manufacturing capacity and intends to continue increasing this spending. RTX plans to produce more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually and anticipates that output of Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) could reach nearly 1,900 per year. Lockheed Martin has significantly ramped up its production of the Patriot interceptor in recent years, reaching approximately 600 annually, with recent plans to expand capacity to 2,000 per year.
However, experts caution that funding alone is insufficient to drive these production increases. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted, "We have more money than we have capacity. It’s just time." The production of missiles is inherently dependent on long-lead components, such as propulsion systems and guidance technology, which are often sourced from a limited number of suppliers. Consequently, new orders can take years to translate into delivered weapons.
Under normal circumstances, missile production follows a multi-year cycle. Typically, it took about two years from contract award to initial delivery, with an additional year to complete full production. These timelines have since lengthened as demand has outstripped capacity. Cancian indicated that new orders placed today could potentially take "four, maybe five years" to be fully delivered.
A significant portion of the Pentagon's planned increase in munitions spending is currently tied to upcoming budget negotiations. This includes supplemental funding and future defense appropriations, which lawmakers have yet to finalize, adding another layer of uncertainty to the timeline for bolstering the nation's missile stockpiles.
