With the United States and Iran poised to sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday, there is renewed optimism that shipping traffic could move freely through the Strait of Hormuz once again. But industry officials caution that any reopening will not be immediate or straightforward, and security remains a paramount concern as operators await credible guarantees from both sides of the regional conflict.
Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at BIMCO, the global shipping association, appeared on All Things Considered to discuss what it could take for ships to pass through the strait safely. The conversation centered on the imperative for verifiable assurances that a designated routing will be safe to navigate, and on the broader question of whether hostilities might reopen and jeopardize a fragile peace.
CHANG: As we hear about the looming memorandum, the shipping industry is watching closely for what comes next. LARSEN: No, it’s unlikely that ships will be able to pass through safely in the immediate days after any announcement. The situation remains largely unchanged from just before the latest deal was announced. Ships are still waiting inside the Persian Gulf, with both the United States and Iran continuing to enforce their blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters. It’s very difficult and very risky to move through the strait right now.
LARSEN: On the mine question, it’s very hard to assess whether Iran laid mines during this conflict. If, as expected, mines have been laid, the central part of the Strait Hormuz would become a mine danger area and pose significant risks to navigation. He noted that there is no precise information, and resolving the threat could take weeks or even months before it is fully neutralized. The industry thus requires credible, bilateral assurances that a given route is safe to navigate, and that hostilities will not be reopened merely by unilateral statements.
CHANG: How will operators know when it’s safe to sail? LARSEN: What we need is assurances from both sides that a route is safe to navigate. Once credible assurances are in place and the declared open route is truly safe, we can expect gradual movement of ships. Until then, questions remain about how long the process will take and what conditions will govern access.
CHANG: There’s also the issue of fees. President Trump has declared the strait will be permanently toll-free, while Iran says there will be no tolls but there will be so-called fees. Did shipping companies pay fees to Iran before the war? LARSEN: No. The Strait of Hormuz is an international strait, and in line with international conventions, it allows freedom of navigation. Fees would constitute a breach of international law, and current practice has not involved tolls or fees charged by Iran.
CHANG: Beyond tolls, could the flow of goods through the strait be permanently altered by this conflict? LARSEN: There is genuine concern, given apparent strains on the rules-based international order in recent months. The shipping industry has long supported international conventions because it underpins free, efficient trade at low cost. Still, there is a fear that the strait’s status could change if the geopolitical dynamics remain unsettled.
CHANG: Looking ahead, could the industry shift toward alternative routes? LARSEN: The industry is worried that Iran’s demonstrated ability to effectively close the strait could push oil-producing countries to consider alternatives, such as pipelines. Whether such developments materialize will depend on future geopolitics and infrastructure investments, and time will tell how markets respond.
LARSEN: In summary, the industry remains hopeful that credible assurances from both sides will enable a safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, the focus is on safety, lawful navigation, and the avoidance of renewed hostilities that could disrupt one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors.
— NPR transcript, June 16, 2026
