U.S. natural gas inventories concluded the winter heating season at levels closely aligned with the five-year average, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The nation's Lower 48 states began the natural gas injection season, spanning April through October, with an estimated 1,890 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of working natural gas in storage. This figure represents a 3% increase compared to the previous five-year average (2021-2025) and is also 3% higher than the storage volume recorded at the end of the prior season.
The winter heating season, from November to March, experienced a dynamic shift in inventory levels. An initially mild start was disrupted by colder-than-normal temperatures across much of the United States in January. This included the impact of Winter Storm Fern, which led to a record storage withdrawal of 360 Bcf for the week ending January 30. Following this significant draw, natural gas inventories temporarily fell to 5.6% below the previous five-year average.
However, a subsequent period of milder weather in February and March allowed for slower storage withdrawals. This trend helped inventories recover and surpass the five-year average threshold. By the week ending March 13, storage levels had climbed to 2.6% above the five-year average. This upward trajectory continued, with inventories reaching 4.8% above the average by April 3, indicating a strong recovery in storage volumes.
Natural gas consumption typically peaks during the winter months due to increased demand for space heating in residential and commercial sectors. The EIA noted that reduced natural gas consumption in these sectors since January has played a role in moderating prices. Consumption figures illustrate this trend, with averages of 42.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in February and 26.0 Bcf/d in March, a notable decrease from the 51.9 Bcf/d recorded in January, according to LSEG Data.
This moderation in consumption has coincided with a significant drop in natural gas prices. The benchmark Henry Hub price averaged $3.04 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in March. This is substantially lower than the January average of $7.72/MMBtu and also down from the February average of $3.62/MMBtu, reflecting the impact of lower demand and robust supply.
Over the entire winter heating season, net withdrawals from natural gas storage facilities totaled 2,048.4 Bcf. This volume was 5% greater than the five-year average for net withdrawals during the season. The weekly withdrawal amounts varied considerably, ranging from a low of 11 Bcf in mid-November to the peak of 360 Bcf in late January.
Looking ahead to the current injection season (April-October), the EIA anticipates that natural gas injections into storage will surpass the five-year average. This projection is supported by expectations of record dry natural gas production. The EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts net injections into natural gas storage facilities to reach 2,125.2 Bcf during this season.
This expected increase in injections represents a 9% rise above the five-year average. The EIA projects that the growth in natural gas production will outpace the combined increase in demand from the electric power sector during the summer and year-round liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. This scenario will allow for a greater volume of natural gas to be injected into storage facilities, bolstering overall supply.
