From Sci-Fi Dreams to Grounded Realities
Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030, a sweeping plan to diversify the Kingdom’s economy away from oil and usher in a new era of technological and social transformation, is undergoing a significant recalibration. Once envisioned as a leap from science fiction into reality, many of the flagship mega-projects, particularly those under the $500 billion Neom umbrella, are now being scaled back, put on hold, or abandoned altogether. This retrenchment marks a shift from the grandiose pronouncements of a decade ago to a more pragmatic approach, driven by financial imperatives and a reassessment of project viability.
The initial impetus for Vision 2030, launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), was to leverage the nation’s vast sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), estimated at nearly $1 trillion (£744 billion), to build a future independent of oil. The plan aimed to create new technological marvels and economic hubs, attracting foreign investment and generating jobs for Saudi Arabia’s young and growing population. However, a significant fall in oil prices prior to the current Middle East conflict, and the ongoing uncertainty it creates, has impacted Saudi Arabia’s extraordinary wealth, placing constraints on its revenue and spending capabilities. Furthermore, the anticipated influx of foreign investment has not materialized to the extent initially projected.
Scaling Down Grand Designs
Among the most prominent projects facing revision is The Line, a futuristic city designed to stretch over 100 miles (161km) in northwest Saudi Arabia. Originally conceived as a linear metropolis towering over London’s Shard, it is now reportedly being scaled down to a more conventional, shorter length. The winter resort of Trojena, also part of Neom, which aimed to be a year-round mountain destination with ski slopes and a man-made lake, has also seen its ambitions curtailed. The cancellation of its role in hosting the Asian Winter Games in 2029, with the event now moved to Kazakhstan, signals a reduced scope for the project. The Cube, a colossal structure envisioned to house the Empire State Building 20 times over and estimated to cost $50 billion, has reportedly been jettisoned entirely. Even the LIV Golf tour, initially heralded as a move to establish Saudi Arabia as a global sports powerhouse, is being reassessed as a costly endeavor that has yielded neither significant financial returns nor reputational benefits, having cost an estimated $5 billion to date.
This pattern of ambitious announcements followed by scaled-down realities is not entirely new to Saudi Arabia. Analysts like Ellen R. Wald, author of “Saudi, Inc.,” point to a historical precedent, recalling similar “Economic Cities” programs launched in the 2000s under King Abdullah. These initiatives also aimed to diversify the economy away from oil, a perennial concern for the Kingdom. While billions were spent, the results were often underwhelming, with many proposed cities never materializing and others being recast as more modest enterprises. The King Abdullah Economic City, a $100 billion project on the Red Sea coast, did come to fruition but has not achieved its goal of becoming a major business and tourism hub.
Wald suggests a fundamental issue lies in the officials behind these projects failing to adopt a realistic view of their potential market. She notes a “yes man” mentality, where consultants and advisors may tell leadership what they want to hear to secure lucrative contracts, leading to projects that fall short of expectations. This tendency to avoid challenging assumptions can be traced back decades, with foreign companies often hesitant to jeopardize profitable contracts by asking critical questions.
Social and Political Undercurrents
The era of MBS as de facto ruler, beginning in 2017, inherited a system perceived by many as needing significant overhaul. Ghanem Nuseibeh, an economic analyst, describes the inherited social and economic system as “out of touch with the modern world” and “heading towards total stagnation.” Vision 2030 was designed to address economic, political, and social aspects of Saudi Arabia, a complex undertaking requiring coordinated implementation.
MBS and his advisors identified the social control exerted by the conservative Islamic leadership as a barrier to achieving the Kingdom’s full economic potential. The political changes under MBS were framed as a transition to a more dynamic, younger generation of leadership, though this did not open avenues for broader political discourse. Nuseibeh acknowledges that MBS himself has contributed to impediments in the pace and scope of change, casting a shadow over his rule.
Significant events have also impacted the Kingdom’s image and investor confidence. The mass detention of elite officials and businessmen at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Riyadh in 2017, portrayed by the government as an anti-corruption crackdown, was viewed by others as a shakedown. The 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the country’s consulate in Istanbul left an indelible stain on MBS’s reputation. Furthermore, the detention of prominent Saudi Islamic scholar Salman al-Ouda since 2017 on charges of “stirring up unrest” highlights the government’s approach to dissent.
Abdullah al-Ouda, son of Salman al-Ouda and a US-based activist, believes that events like the Ritz-Carlton purge have been counterproductive to funding Vision 2030, despite the estimated $100 billion reportedly recovered from those detained. He argues that such actions have scared away investors in the long term, creating an environment of unpredictability that deters those seeking stable investment opportunities. The perception of arbitrary detention, he notes, is a significant deterrent for potential investors.
Despite these challenges, Vision 2030 has also been credited with shifting the national conversation and transforming Saudi Arabia’s image through a series of high-profile sports and entertainment events since 2016. Headline-grabbing social reforms, such as granting women the right to drive, have also contributed to societal shifts within the Kingdom.
