Step on to the tarmac at any major airport and you’ll notice a familiar, slightly sweet aroma—the smell of jet fuel. In recent weeks, that scent has become more costly as the price of jet fuel has surged on international markets amid Middle East tensions and disruptions to Gulf supplies. The potential for physical shortages in the coming months has officials and industry alike watching oil markets closely, amid warnings that the Strait of Hormuz disruption could tighten supplies further. Airlines have already pushed up ticket prices and trimmed schedules as fuel costs rise, while some carriers have begun to alter flight plans to manage the squeeze.
Europe, and the UK in particular as Europe’s largest jet-fuel market, faces a vulnerability born of a heavy reliance on imports and a relatively tight refining capacity. The Gulf region normally supplies a large portion of jet fuel, accounting for about 20% of the fuel traded on international markets, with Europe as a major buyer. But with the Strait of Hormuz blocked for eight weeks, those imports have become less reliable, prompting a scramble for fuel from other regions. Jet fuel prices rose from about $831 per tonne in Europe in February to around $1,838 per tonne in April before retreating but staying well above $1,500. The price dynamics far outpaced crude oil moves, underscoring how dependent jet fuel is on refining capacity rather than crude volumes alone.
The crunch is compounded by a lack of refining capacity in Europe. Jet fuel is a highly refined kerosene, produced through the distillation of crude oil, and the region’s output is constrained at a time of rising demand. Amaar Khan of Argus Media notes that Europe has faced several refinery closures in recent years, reducing available capacity just as demand climbs. The UK, which imports about 65% of its jet fuel needs, has been particularly exposed, with two British refineries closing and only four remaining in operation. This has forced tighter schedules and higher costs for airlines operating in and out of the UK.
Airlines have responded in different ways. Hedging offers some protection, but not a complete shield against price volatility. EasyJet hedged about 80% of its fuel for the first half of the year at $717 per tonne; the remaining exposure lifted March costs by roughly £25 million. Other carriers have chosen to forego hedging in recent years, leaving them more exposed to price spikes when markets jump. Some carriers have already cut summer schedules in response to fuel pressures, while others have raised fares. Lufthansa has signaled it would cut about 20,000 flights between now and October to preserve profitability as costs climb.
Long-haul routes have borne the brunt of the squeeze, with prices for some long-haul tickets rising sharply as capacity tightens alongside high fuel costs. A London–Melbourne flight in June, for example, is reported to be about 76% more expensive than last year according to research from the consultancy Teneo. United Airlines has indicated it will pass higher fuel costs to customers, with CEO Scott Kirby telling investors the carrier would “do whatever it takes to recover 100% of the increase in jet fuel prices as quickly as possible.” IAG, parent company of British Airways and Iberia, has warned travelers to expect higher prices, while Virgin Atlantic has already introduced surcharges on economy and business class tickets.
Short-haul flights within Europe have not seen prices rise as sharply, with some carriers indicating fares are not increasing at the same pace. Wizz Air’s József Váradi has said prices have been easing as airlines use price incentives to attract travelers, though he cautioned that a shortage would not be felt uniformly across the region. He also noted there is room for flexibility in pricing as the situation evolves. Analysts have argued that well-hedged low-cost carriers may gain relative advantage in a market where fuel protection varies across players.
A looming fear for Europe is that jet fuel supplies could run short. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in mid-April that Europe could have “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left,” with US imports only able to replace about half of lost Middle Eastern supplies. If the trend continued, reserves could reach critically low levels by June, potentially causing shortages at select airports and prompting flight cancellations. Stocks at Europe’s Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub have fallen to multi-year lows, with reserves estimated around 30 days and 23 days identified as a danger threshold by the IEA.
Despite Europe’s dependence on Middle Eastern sources, alternative supply sources exist, including East Asia (notably South Korea and Taiwan), the United States, and Nigeria. However, East Asian refineries rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude, limiting export availability, and US jet fuel supply is affected by cross-border fuel specifications (Jet A in the US and Jet A1 in Europe). The EU’s ban on refined products from Russian crude further tightened supply chains by removing Indian jet fuel from the European market, as highlighted by Argus Media.
Governments and regulatory bodies are weighing steps to mitigate supply shocks and price volatility. The UK government has drafted concessions to allow airlines to cancel or rework schedules at busy airports without losing allocated slots, reducing the incentive to fly half-full services simply to preserve slots. The European Commission and Brussels are considering parallel measures, with discussions about tankering rules and potential imports of Jet A from the United States, subject to technical viability and infrastructure.
European authorities are also signaling that cancellations or severe delays caused by jet fuel shortages could qualify as exceptional circumstances under EU rules, potentially allowing airlines to avoid passenger compensation while still offering refunds or alternative flights. In parallel, refinery operators are being urged to maximise jet fuel output, and there is scrutiny of potential cross-Atlantic Jet A1 shipments if feasible within current infrastructure. As a prognosis, industry executives acknowledge the risk of uneven impact, with larger hubs likely to bear greater pressure than smaller ones, reflecting the complexity of supply chains in a continent reliant on imports and constrained refining capacity.
In the longer run, analysts say the situation underscores how geopolitical conflict and refinery capacity interact with energy markets to shape travel costs and schedules. The path to a smoother peak season will depend on whether supplies can be steadied and whether refining capacity can be expanded or better coordinated across regions. For travelers, that means higher fares, the possibility of more flight disruptions, and a season in which timing and flexibility become as valuable as the tickets themselves.
