Motor gasoline consumption in the United States experienced a decline in 2025, even as vehicle miles traveled (VMT) saw an increase. This trend is attributed to rising fuel efficiency across the vehicle fleet, a pattern the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts will persist through 2026 and 2027. According to the EIA's April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), this divergence is driven by improvements in vehicle fuel economy outpacing the growth in travel.
In 2025, U.S. motor gasoline consumption averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d). This figure represents a 1% decrease compared to 2024 levels and a significant 4% reduction from the pre-pandemic demand observed in 2019. The EIA's latest STEO indicates that this downward trajectory in gasoline consumption is expected to continue, fueled by ongoing advancements in fuel efficiency and a projected slowdown in VMT growth.
Gasoline consumption is fundamentally linked to two primary factors: the total distance traveled by vehicles nationwide, measured as VMT, and the average fuel economy of the vehicle fleet, expressed in miles per gallon (MPG). The EIA calculates an implied vehicle fleet fuel economy by dividing VMT data, provided by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), by the total gasoline consumed, using its own product supplied data as a proxy for consumption. While this metric offers a broad reflection of the interplay between fuel use, travel, and vehicle composition rather than precise on-road efficiency, it effectively captures the prevailing trends.
Data for 2025 reveals that while FHWA reported a 1.2% increase in VMT over 2024, the EIA's estimated vehicle fleet fuel economy improved by 1.9% during the same period. This improvement in fuel efficiency effectively offset the rise in travel, leading to the overall reduction in gasoline consumption. Factors contributing to this enhanced average MPG include advancements in the fuel efficiency of new internal combustion engine vehicles and a growing market share for hybrid vehicles.
The gradual replacement of older, less efficient vehicles with newer, more fuel-efficient models is a key driver of increasing fleet-wide MPG. Regulatory standards, such as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards set by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and greenhouse gas emissions standards from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, mandate improvements in the fuel economy of new gasoline-powered vehicles sold in the U.S. Although potential changes to these standards could influence future fuel economy, the long lead times in automotive design, development, and production—typically five to seven years—mean that significant impacts are not expected in the immediate term.
Looking ahead, the EIA forecasts that gasoline consumption will continue its decline in both 2026 and 2027. This projection is based on the assumption that vehicle fleet fuel economy gains will persist, coupled with a continued slowdown in VMT growth. The agency anticipates that MPG will increase by approximately 1% annually over the forecast period.
Slower growth in VMT is expected over the next two years, influenced by anticipated moderation in employment and working-age population growth. The EIA's STEO macroeconomic outlook projects annual employment growth of 0.3% in the United States, a notable decrease from the 1.4% average seen between 2010 and 2019. Furthermore, the working-age population (defined as individuals aged 15 to 64) is projected to grow by only 0.1% during the forecast period. These macroeconomic assumptions are informed by forecasts from S&P Global.
Despite expectations of higher crude oil prices leading to increased gasoline prices through the end of 2027, the EIA anticipates that these price fluctuations will have a relatively limited impact on overall gasoline consumption. Historically, changes in gasoline prices have demonstrated a comparatively modest effect on consumption in the short term.
