The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. natural gas exports will increase by nearly 30% by the end of 2027, driven by the startup and production ramp-up of five liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. The agency also anticipates growth in natural gas pipeline exports, primarily to Mexico.
According to the EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), net exports of U.S. natural gas, calculated as exports minus imports, are projected to rise by 18% to an average of 18.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026. This upward trend is expected to continue into 2027, with net exports increasing by an additional 10% to reach 20.5 Bcf/d.
U.S. LNG exports are forecast to climb by 1.9 Bcf/d in 2026, averaging 17.0 Bcf/d for the year. By 2027, these exports are expected to grow by another 9%, adding 1.5 Bcf/d. Concurrently, natural gas pipeline exports are predicted to increase by 4% (0.4 Bcf/d) in 2026 and by 2% (0.2 Bcf/d) in 2027.
The EIA expects U.S. LNG export terminals to operate at slightly higher utilization rates in 2026, even though they were already running at high levels in 2025. This increased demand for U.S. LNG cargoes is partly attributed to recent disruptions affecting LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz. These disruptions, mainly concentrated in Qatar, currently impact over 10 Bcf/d, representing approximately 20% of global supply. Furthermore, Qatar sustained damage to 17% of its export capacity following a March 18 attack on the Ras Laffan LNG export facility, which damaged two liquefaction trains. QatarEnergy estimates that repairs for these damaged trains could take up to five years.
Several key projects are set to contribute to the projected increase in U.S. LNG export capacity. By the end of 2027, new facilities and expansions are expected to come online. Corpus Christi Stage 3 will start operations with trains 5 through 7, adding a combined 0.6 Bcf/d. Golden Pass LNG is scheduled to bring its initial two trains online, contributing 1.4 Bcf/d. Looking ahead to 2027, Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 is expected to add 1.6 Bcf/d, while Rio Grande LNG Trains 1 and 2 will contribute an additional 1.4 Bcf/d. The final train of Golden Pass LNG is also anticipated to begin exports, adding 0.7 Bcf/d. In addition to these new terminals, Plaquemines LNG and Elba Island LNG received approval in March and April 2026, respectively, to increase their permitted export volumes by 0.5 Bcf/d and 0.1 Bcf/d.
In 2025, U.S. LNG exports to Europe reached a record 10.3 Bcf/d, a significant increase from the 6.3 Bcf/d recorded in 2024. These exports accounted for 68% of total U.S. LNG export volumes during that period, according to the EIA's Natural Gas Monthly. Within Europe, exports to Italy saw the largest increase, rising by 0.5 Bcf/d, followed by Poland, which experienced a 0.3 Bcf/d growth in U.S. LNG imports. Conversely, exports to Asia fell from 4.0 Bcf/d in 2024 to 2.5 Bcf/d in 2025, representing 16% of LNG export volumes. U.S. LNG exports destined for China dropped to zero in 2025 from 0.6 Bcf/d in the previous year, as traders opted to resell cargoes amid prevailing trade tensions.
Exports to other regions also saw notable shifts. Shipments to Egypt quadrupled from 0.3 Bcf/d in 2024 to 1.2 Bcf/d in 2025, contributing to a substantial 0.7 Bcf/d increase in exports to the rest of the world. These shifts in export destinations underscore the dynamic nature of the global LNG market and the U.S.'s growing role as a key supplier.
U.S. LNG imports, which primarily serve the New England region and typically peak during the winter months, remained relatively stable. In 2025, these imports averaged less than 0.1 Bcf/d. The EIA forecasts that LNG imports will average 0.1 Bcf/d in both 2026 and 2027. These imports are expected to continue serving as a marginal supply source, particularly during periods of high demand, such as the winter season.
Looking at pipeline exports, the EIA anticipates a continued upward trend throughout the forecast period. Exports are projected to reach 9.8 Bcf/d in 2026 and 10.0 Bcf/d in 2027, following a 0.4 Bcf/d increase in 2025 that brought the average to 9.5 Bcf/d. The primary driver behind this sustained growth in pipeline exports is Mexico’s growing demand for natural gas, fueled by expansion in its power generation sector and the development of two new LNG export facilities expected to become operational within the next two years. These Mexican facilities will be supplied by U.S.-origin pipeline gas exports.
The two new LNG export facilities in Mexico, Energía Costa Azul LNG and the second phase of Fast LNG Altamira Floating LNG production vessel (FLNG2), are expected to collectively add 0.6 Bcf/d of export capacity. Energía Costa Azul LNG is slated to come online in 2026, while FLNG2 is anticipated to begin operations in 2027.
Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas pipeline imports from Canada rose by 0.1 Bcf/d in 2025, averaging 8.6 Bcf/d. However, projections indicate a decrease in these imports to 8.0 Bcf/d by 2027. This anticipated decline is linked to the ramp-up of two new LNG facilities on Canada's west coast, which will have a combined capacity of 2.1 Bcf/d over the next few years. Concurrently, the EIA expects that natural gas demand in the Northeast United States will be increasingly met by production growth originating from the Appalachia region.
Principal contributors to this analysis include Jordan Young and Trinity Manning-Pickett from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook and Natural Gas Monthly reports.
