Prediction markets, online platforms allowing users to bet on a wide range of future events, are experiencing a significant surge in popularity, particularly among young men. Major platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen their valuations climb, with Kalshi reportedly reaching $22 billion and Polymarket $9 billion. Data from Morning Consult indicates that users are disproportionately under the age of 45, with men comprising 71% of this demographic. Further highlighting this trend, a poll by the American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM) and Ipsos found that over a quarter of American men aged 18-24 have used a prediction market or gambling app in the past six months, compared to 14% of the general public. Jonathan Cohen, head of sports betting policy at AIBM, describes the user base as having "young male vibes," suggesting a strong neurological component linked to young men's attitudes towards sports, money, and risk-taking, which he attributes to "an underdeveloped pre-frontal cortex and a high appetite for risk."
Unlike many other forms of betting that face state-specific restrictions in the U.S., prediction markets are not classified as gambling. Instead, they are categorized as commodity futures trading, placing them in the same regulatory bracket as trading oil or metals. Similar to traditional stock and commodities markets, prediction markets generate revenue by charging a small fee on each bet. Proponents argue that these platforms offer a sophisticated and modern avenue for financial engagement. They contend that the odds fluctuate based on collective betting behavior rather than a bookmaker's assessment, potentially providing users with better odds and real-time insights into public sentiment on diverse topics, from sports to politics. These insights, they claim, are more reliable than conventional polls because participants are financially backing their opinions.
However, critics present a more cautionary perspective, asserting that the design and marketing of these platforms tend to downplay inherent risks and normalize gambling behaviors. Experts suggest that young men, in particular, are being enticed into losing money by websites and applications that mimic the appearance and feel of legitimate stock and share trading platforms, rather than being perceived as gambling venues. As young men drawn in by the appeal of prediction markets incur losses, a growing body of evidence indicates that informed and insider traders are accumulating substantial profits from bets on significant global events, including potential developments in the Iran war.
The skewed male demographic of prediction markets is visibly reflected across social media. Prominent YouTuber and wrestler Logan Paul has featured sponsorships from Polymarket on his shows. Online forums frequented by men often discuss methods to circumvent internet restrictions in certain countries to access these applications. Young men have adopted the phrase "monitoring the situation" as a colloquialism for staying informed about news and potential investment opportunities by browsing social media feeds and the homepages of prediction markets. One popular origin story for this meme involves a viral image of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, depicted as muscular and wearing a headset in an office, captioned with "the masculine urge to monitor the situation." Polymarket further embraced this meme by launching a bar named The Situation Room in Washington D.C. in March, with videos from the event predominantly showing male attendees.
Despite the widespread promotion and perceived excitement, many users, including Cameron George, a 26-year-old who transitioned from stacking shelves at Walmart in 2019 to becoming a full-time crypto trader and content creator, have experienced financial losses on these platforms. George, who shares his life on social media, often featuring his McLaren 600 LT and family, admits to having lost a couple of thousand dollars. He explains that he, like many others, experimented with an artificial intelligence (AI) bot, influenced by social media claims of easy money-making. "I haven't made any money so far, my AI agent's not been doing good," he stated, laughing. "I'm down a couple of grand."
This pattern of loss is not isolated. An analysis by Bloomberg News revealed that since the beginning of 2025 through the end of April this year, nearly twice as many Polymarket accounts betting over $1,000 have incurred losses than have seen gains. A separate analysis by The Wall Street Journal indicated that a staggering 67% of profits on Polymarket are concentrated among just 0.1% of accounts. The newspaper further reported that fewer than 2,000 accounts collectively received nearly half a billion dollars. The accounts that perform best on these platforms are often associated with firms employing staff who pay for access to live data feeds, servers, and AI bots, suggesting a sophisticated, data-driven approach that contrasts sharply with the casual user's experience.
Professor Elvira Bolat from Bournemouth University, who researches online gambling and social media, expresses concern over the losses experienced by uninformed traders and the way prediction markets "normalize" betting. She is particularly critical of influencers who she believes "totally dismiss risk" when discussing these platforms. While publicity stunts like the opening of The Situation Room bar might appear harmless to enthusiasts, Bolat views them as indicative of a broader issue concerning how Polymarket and its competitors present themselves. She argues that prediction markets are increasingly being framed not merely as gambling but as a form of intelligence, strategy, forecasting, or even participation in internet culture itself. The interfaces of these platforms often resemble Bloomberg terminals, commonly used by finance professionals, and they are integrated into some investment applications. "In many cases, platforms present themselves more as information markets or trading environments than betting products, even though behaviorally they can resemble gambling quite closely," Bolat observes. She puts attention on whether operators and influencers are adequately disclosing the risks associated with using these platforms.
Cohen suggests that prediction markets exploit the vulnerability of young men experiencing "economic nihilism." This sentiment might lead individuals to think, "If I have $20,000 – which feels like it's worth nothing – and put it in the S&P 500 then it'll be worth more in 20 years, but if I invest it in one of these prediction markets now I'll be rich quick." The appeal may also stem from the feeling of outsmarting other individuals. Cohen explains, "The lottery is not interesting [to young people] because it's picking random numbers. But a bet makes you feel smart because you picked the game or the politician. It's like 'identify the alpha because he beat them all at the prediction markets.'" He further notes that many regular users on these platforms are not engaging in peer-to-peer gambling but are instead competing "against a load of hedge funds who are going to eat their lunch."
Both experts emphasize the need for more comprehensive data regarding the precise user base of prediction markets. Kalshi and Polymarket, which predominantly feature sports betting, appear to acknowledge the prevailing perception of prediction markets as male-dominated spaces. Both platforms are actively attempting to attract a more diverse user base, including women, by collaborating with female influencers who share positive videos about the platforms and by utilizing official accounts to post memes from popular films like "Mean Girls" and "Clueless." Kalshi reported to the BBC that the proportion of women users on its platform has increased from 13% to 26% over the past year. The company also stated its commitment to partnering with organizations to address problem gambling and promote responsible usage.
