Crude oil futures edged lower over the weekend and into Sunday night after President Trump posted that a deal to end the war with Iran was “complete,” fueling expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen once the agreement is signed on Friday. Traders had already priced in relief from near-term supply interruptions as the deal seemed imminent, and the latest social posts accelerated the move, pushing Brent crude below $84 a barrel and WTI under $81 as markets reopened after the weekend. Earlier in the week, prices had slid more than 12% from the mid-week level as investors anticipated a potential easing of the chokepoint that channels roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supply. While prices remain above pre-war levels in the $60s, they sit well off the highs touched during the peak of the conflict, when crude briefly traded near $126 a barrel.
The market now faces a mixed outlook: even with signs of an imminent reopening, analysts warn that a full restoration to pre-war supply levels may take months. Some oil and gas production fields and refineries have been taken offline or damaged, delaying the return of full flows. In the near term, a faster reopening could ease crude supply pressures and help soften consumer energy costs in Asia and Europe, though the pace of normalization depends on how quickly physical infrastructure comes back online. Kevin Book of Clearview Energy Partners noted that while some facilities can restart rapidly, others will take longer, and it remains unclear whether a new surplus will emerge soon. The broader energy picture continues to be shaped by geopolitical risk, ongoing production adjustments, and the process of refilling bloated inventories. Market participants will watch for official confirmation of the deal, the timeline for mine removal, and the pace of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as the world gauges how quickly markets will converge toward pre-war pricing dynamics.
Significantly, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has played a central role in mediating between the U.S. and Iran, confirmed that a deal has been reached. The development could offer near-term price relief for crude markets while underscoring ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical risk. A rapid reopening of the strait would ease pressure on global oil buyers, particularly in Asia and Europe, but would not guarantee an immediate return to the pre-war price and flow regime. As the market digests the news, traders will assess how quickly ships can move through the Strait, how fast inventories can be refilled, and how soon production fields and refineries can be fully restored to support a normalization of flows.
In the meantime, oil and gas markets remain sensitive to headlines about the deal and the pace of any easing through the Hormuz chokepoint, with investors watching closely how the physical supply chain and stockpiles respond in the weeks ahead.
