The debate over how large the next intergenerational wealth transfer will be intensified as two authoritative studies published conflicting figures. Cerulli Associates recently estimated that more than $100 trillion could be passed from older generations to heirs by 2048, a figure that has anchored discussions among wealth managers, financial services firms, charities, and investors. By contrast, Visa’s Business and Economic Insights released a projection that only about $36 trillion of boomer wealth would move to Gen X and millennial heirs over the next two decades. The widening gap—more than $60 trillion—has spurred questions about how the transfer will unfold, how much of it will be consumed versus saved or invested, and what this means for markets and product demand.
Visa’s analysis begins with the total wealth held by today’s baby boomers, which it places at roughly $93 trillion. After removing liabilities, including mortgage debt pegged at about $5 trillion, and subtracting wealth concentrated in the top 1%, estimated at $28 trillion, Visa arrives at a different baseline for what could be transferred. Wayne Best, Visa’s chief economist, noted that the top 1%—those with wealth of at least $12 million—tend to spend differently, a factor Visa excludes to better gauge average consumer behavior. “They don’t spend like the rest of us,” he remarked, illustrating that the spending patterns of the ultra-wealthy can skew overall projections.
Visa then adjusts for retirement spending, acknowledging that boomers are living longer and may draw down wealth more gradually than in past generations. The result is an estimate that retirement outlays, along with charitable giving and taxes, reduce the pool of transferable wealth to $36 trillion from the initial $93 trillion. Within that $36 trillion, Visa projects about $28 trillion will be saved or invested, while around $8 trillion could go toward consumption on items such as cars, homes, travel, and retail. Best stressed that $8 trillion in spending remains a substantial sum, even though it constitutes a fraction of the total projected transfer. “You know, $8 trillion in spending is nothing to sneeze at,” he said, emphasizing the need for context when discussing trillions of dollars.
Cerulli, on the other hand, seeks to measure the total wealth being transferred across all generations and all ages, not just baby boomers. Chayce Horton, Cerulli’s associate director of wealth management, said the most significant effects will be felt in wealth management services rather than consumer goods. Cerulli’s framework indicates that more than $100 trillion will be passed down, with the transfer distributed across heirs over several decades. Horton highlighted that half of the transferrable wealth would originate from high net worth or ultra-wealthy families, underscoring the uneven distribution of inherited wealth.
An important feature of Cerulli’s approach is the inclusion of transfers involving all generations, including Silent Generation and Generation X. Horton noted that the first intergenerational transfers often begin with spouses, frequently women, before wealth moves to children and other relatives. Cerulli’s projections also account for retirement spending, taxes, and debt, and they estimate that about $18 trillion of the $124 trillion in transferrable wealth could go to charity, leaving approximately $106 trillion directed to heirs and spouses.
The two studies diverge not only in the total size of the transfer but also in the composition of the wealth being moved. Visa’s analysis is anchored in the spending implications for everyday Americans, while Cerulli emphasizes the long-run implications for wealth management, estate planning, philanthropy, and the broader financial services industry. The disparity has prompted wealth managers to rethink product lines, client services, and intergenerational planning strategies as they prepare for a landscape where inherited wealth remains a central driver of demand for advisory services and financial products.
Looking ahead, the chronology of transfers suggests that Generation X and millennials could be among the early beneficiaries of the first wave of wealth movements, with Gen X expected to be substantial recipients in the coming decade and millennials forecast to accumulate the largest shares over the subsequent quarter-century. The evolving composition of inherited wealth has implications for how financial institutions design relationships, manage risk, and tailor services for families across generations.
Both studies reinforce the scale of the ongoing wealth transfer and its potential to reshape estate planning, philanthropy, and the demand for wealth-management solutions. They also illustrate how definitions and methodologies—whether focusing on total transferrable wealth or the portion actually accessible for spending—can dramatically alter the projected size of the transfer and its market implications.
