Electricity consumed by data center servers is expected to rise significantly across the commercial building sector, with projections indicating a substantial increase by 2050. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026), forecasts that server electricity consumption will grow more rapidly in standalone data centers compared to server rooms within other commercial facilities.
By the year 2050, the EIA projects that server consumption alone could range between 446 billion and 818 billion kilowatthours (BkWh). The higher end of this projection is attributed to faster growth in server power draw and the installed base of servers, particularly within the EIA's High Electricity Demand case. In this scenario, standalone data centers, categorized under the "other buildings" sector, are estimated to consume 581 BkWh of electricity in 2050.
Across various analyzed cases, servers are anticipated to account for approximately 7% of the commercial sector's electricity consumption in 2025. This share is projected to expand considerably, with data center server electricity use potentially reaching between 22% and 33% of total commercial building electricity consumption by 2050. This growth highlights the increasing demand for power driven by the proliferation of data centers and their associated computing infrastructure.
The overall electricity intensity of the commercial sector, measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh) per square foot, is also expected to surpass previous historical highs. The EIA's Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) data indicates that the sector's electricity intensity exceeded the 2003 peak of 14.9 kWh per square foot for the first time in the 2031-2032 period. Historical data from the 2003 CBECS revealed that newer buildings constructed from 1990 onwards were nearly twice as energy-intensive as older buildings built before 1959.
This escalating energy intensity is partly driven by data center servers and the essential support systems required for their operation, such as space cooling and ventilation. The EIA's AEO2026 projections incorporate these factors, recognizing that data center operations necessitate significant energy for cooling to maintain optimal temperatures for IT equipment. The energy required for space cooling in data center floorspace is estimated to be as much as 2.9 times more intensive than in non-data center areas.
Service demand for space cooling is influenced by assumptions regarding population migration and weather patterns. Under the High Electricity Demand case, the consumption of electricity for space cooling is projected to be 84 BkWh higher in 2050 compared to the Counterfactual Baseline case, largely to support more intensive data center operations. The EIA's updated Commercial Demand Model for AEO2026 now separates data center server electricity usage from broader commercial computing categories to provide a more granular view.
Data center servers are characterized by a nearly flat end-use load shape, meaning their electricity demand remains consistent throughout the day. In the Counterfactual Baseline case, the EIA assumes servers will become progressively more efficient after 2040, leading to a 10% reduction in average annual operational power draw every three years, beyond existing efficiency trends. Nevertheless, the continuous expansion of server installations is expected to drive overall consumption growth. The High Electricity Demand case, however, does not assume such efficiency improvements and anticipates a larger proportion of AI servers within the total server stock over time compared to the Counterfactual Baseline.
