A new AdImpact report projects that political advertising for the 2026 midterm elections will surpass spending seen in the 2024 presidential cycle and set a record for any U.S. election. The analysis puts total projected ad spend across 2026 races at $11.6 billion, higher than the $11.2 billion spent in 2024 and the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms. The forecast marks a $795 million upward revision from AdImpact’s prior projection, signaling a more intense early cycle driven by high-profile contests in California, Texas and other battleground states.
Broadcast television is expected to account for about half of the total cycle spend, with state races driving much of that outlay. AdImpact breaks down the projected spend into roughly $5.6 billion on broadcast, $1.4 billion on cable, $2.6 billion on connected TV and $1.68 billion on digital platforms. Digital advertising across social and online channels is gaining share, with the digital category projected at about $1.68 billion for the cycle. Senate races are anticipated to absorb a substantial portion of the budget, approaching $3.4 billion, while Texas’ Senate contest is highlighted as one of the costliest.
Beyond federal contests, gubernatorial races are also notable, with California, New Jersey and Georgia among the four most expensive on record this cycle. Down-ballot spending is expected to reach record levels, exceeding the 2022 peak of $3.2 billion. The heaviest spending window is projected to run from August through November, as Election Day approaches.
As of June 1, total ad spending had reached roughly $4.0 billion, a 46% increase from the same point in the 2024 cycle, reflecting earlier-than-usual concentration of high-profile, high-dollar races. AdImpact notes that the surge is driven by a concentrated set of contests materializing earlier in the cycle than typical, while campaigns also lean more on digital platforms such as Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X.
Source attribution for the article remains aligned with CNBC reporting on AdImpact’s findings and figures.
